Research & Data
Chief executives turned more pessimistic heading into the end of 2026, and slightly more of them now expect to shrink their workforces than a quarter ago. The Conference Board’s Measure of CEO Confidence, conducted with The Business Council, fell to 46 in the fourth quarter from 52 in the third, according to results released Oct. 15.
A reading below 50 means more responses were negative than positive. Dana M. Peterson, the Conference Board’s chief economist, said confidence fell “to its lowest level since Q2 2025.” The survey of 131 CEOs was fielded from Sept. 21 to Oct. 5.
Hiring plans tilt slightly toward cuts
On employment, the split among CEOs is close to even. A third, 33%, said they expect to expand their workforce, down from 34% in the third quarter. Another 36% expect no change, while 31% expect to reduce headcount, up from 28%.
That is a modest shift, not a collapse in hiring intentions, but it moves the balance closer to a point where as many large employers plan to shrink as to grow. Most executives also do not expect recruiting to be a major obstacle: 61% said they anticipate either no problem hiring over the next 12 months, 15%, or no overall problem but some difficulty in certain areas, 46%.
Pay and investment plans hold up
Wage plans moved in the other direction. A majority of CEOs, 57%, said they plan raises clustered in the 3% to 3.9% range, and the share planning increases of 4% or more rose to 16% from 9% in the prior quarter.
Investment plans were steady to firmer. Some 53% said they have no plans to revise capital spending, 36% expect to increase it, up from 31%, and 11% expect to cut it. Roger W. Ferguson Jr., vice chairman of The Business Council and chair emeritus of the Conference Board, noted that most CEOs expect to maintain or raise their existing capital investment plans.
What drove the decline
The drop came from how executives see the economy, now and ahead. Only 19% said general economic conditions are better than six months ago, down from 23%, while 37% said they are worse, up from 26%. Looking six months out, 13% expect the economy to improve, down from 25%, and 41% expect it to worsen, up from 19%.
Views of their own industries also softened. Some 25% expect conditions in their industry to improve over the next six months, down from 36%, while 28% expect them to worsen, up from 13%. The Conference Board said cybersecurity, AI and geopolitical risks remained CEOs’ top three concerns and rose in intensity this quarter.
Why it matters for job seekers
The CEO survey is an early signal, not a jobs count. When the share of executives planning cuts edges up while the share planning to grow slips, it can point to slower hiring at large companies in the months ahead. The firmer wage and investment plans, however, suggest most leaders are bracing for a tougher economy rather than pulling back across the board. For job seekers, that combination points to a more selective market at big employers rather than a broad freeze.
The catch
The sample is small. At 131 respondents, a shift of a few percentage points represents only a handful of CEOs, and the one-point drop in the share planning to expand amounts to one or two executives. Respondents are CEOs of large companies; the results do not describe small businesses. The survey measures expectations and plans for the next year, which can change, and it does not report actual hiring or layoffs.
This survey is separate from the 2026 KPMG U.S. CEO Outlook, also released Oct. 15, which polled 400 U.S. CEOs on a three-year horizon. The two use different samples, questions and time frames, and their figures should not be combined or directly compared.
The Conference Board’s next quarterly reading is scheduled for Thursday, Feb. 18.
Sources
- The Conference Board, “CEO Confidence Declined in Q4 2026,” October 15, 2026. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/ceo-confidence/
Featured photo: The Conference Board's entrance at 845 Third Avenue in Manhattan, photographed July 23, 2012. Photo: Jim.henderson, via Wikimedia Commons (CC0). Cropped from the original.
