Employers
Most chief executives of large U.S. companies say they expect to employ more people three years from now, but a majority also say they are planning to shrink their workforces in some parts of the business. Those two findings sit side by side in the 2026 KPMG U.S. CEO Outlook, which the accounting and advisory firm released on Oct. 15.
According to KPMG, 89% of the U.S. chief executives it surveyed expect to increase headcount over the next three years. Most of that expected growth is modest: KPMG’s report shows 60% of CEOs expecting growth below 5% and 26% expecting growth of 6% to 10%, with only 2% anticipating an increase of 11% to 25%.
At the same time, 53% said they are planning workforce reductions in some areas over the next two to five years. The two numbers are not contradictory. A company can cut roles in one function while hiring in another and still end up larger overall, and the survey asks about both intentions separately.
Where the hiring and the cuts point
The cuts and the hiring both appear tied to how companies are rebuilding work around artificial intelligence. Over the same two-to-five-year horizon, 86% of CEOs said they are redesigning roles and career paths for people and AI systems working together, 83% said they are focusing on retaining and retraining high-potential employees, and 79% said they are hiring for AI and technology skills.
The skills gap was the most commonly named workforce challenge, cited by 60% of respondents, followed by upskilling employees on AI systems at 55% and attracting and retaining talent at 49%. KPMG also reported that 81% of CEOs said AI has led them to rethink employee training, and 75% said it has changed the skills they require for entry-level roles.
The broader mood was upbeat. Over the next three years, 84% said they were confident in their own company’s growth prospects and 79% in the U.S. economy’s, compared with 64% for the global economy. Some 84% called AI a top investment priority, and 65% said they expect to put at least 10% of their capital budget toward AI in the coming year.
Why it matters for job seekers
For candidates, the survey describes a reshuffling more than a hiring boom. If these plans hold, large employers will keep adding people, but slowly, while trimming some roles and putting more weight on AI and technology skills. The finding that three in four CEOs say AI has changed what they want from entry-level hires is especially relevant for students and early-career workers, whose first jobs are where requirements are shifting.
The catch
These are intentions, not hires. The survey records what executives expect and plan, and plans can change with the economy; none of the figures measure jobs actually added or cut. The sample is also narrow: KPMG surveyed 400 U.S. CEOs, part of more than 1,300 worldwide, and says all U.S. respondents lead companies with annual revenue above $500 million, with more than a third above $10 billion. The results say nothing about small and midsize employers, which account for a large share of U.S. hiring.
KPMG’s published materials do not give the dates the survey was in the field or show how the questions were worded, and the three headcount-growth bands in its report add up to 88%, one point short of the 89% headline figure, without explanation. The 53% figure covers reductions in some areas, not companywide layoffs, and the survey does not say how many jobs those reductions would involve.
Separately, The Conference Board released its own fourth-quarter CEO confidence reading on Oct. 15. It is a different survey of a different, smaller group of executives, and its results should not be combined with KPMG’s.
Sources
- KPMG LLP, “KPMG Survey: CEOs Confident in Their AI Progress and U.S. Economic Growth, but Cyber and Geopolitical Risks Intensify,” October 15, 2026. https://kpmg.com/us/en/media/news/kpmg-us-ceo-outlook-2026.html
- KPMG LLP, “2026 KPMG US CEO Outlook,” October 2026. https://kpmg.com/us/en/articles/2026/ceo-outlook.html
Featured photo: KPMG signage on an office building in Washington, D.C., photographed June 21, 2024. Representative image; not an image of the CEO survey or its respondents. Photo: ajay_suresh, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0). Cropped from the original.
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