Atlanta Fed Beige Book: Southeast Employment Flat as Skilled-Trade Shortages Persist

Local Affairs

Employers across the Southeast are holding headcount steady while still struggling to find specialized, technical and skilled-trade workers, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s section of the October Beige Book, released Oct. 14. “Employment levels were largely flat, and reports of layoffs remained limited,” the bank wrote, describing an economy that “grew modestly over the reporting period.”

The report covers the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which takes in Alabama, Florida and Georgia plus parts of Louisiana, Mississippi and Tennessee. It is not a reading on metro Atlanta. The Atlanta Fed has branches in Birmingham, Jacksonville, Miami, Nashville and New Orleans, and its findings blend contacts from across that territory. The national report notes the information was collected on or before Oct. 5.

Hiring is narrow, not broad

The Atlanta Fed said shortages of specialized, technical and skilled-trade workers “persisted” during the period. Where hiring was reported, it was targeted: some professional services and banking contacts said they were adding people in revenue-generating and customer-facing roles to increase sales.

The district’s previous report, released Sept. 2, described the same pattern. Employment was then “flat in the aggregate,” layoffs were limited, and some construction and advanced manufacturing firms reported shortages of specialized workers such as electricians. That report also noted hiring had slowed somewhat in health care.

Pay raises stay in a narrow band

Most contacts reported annual wage increases of about 2% to 3%, the same range cited in September. Some said wage pressure continued for skilled roles. The October report added that some employees worried their cost-of-living increases were insufficient in the current inflationary environment. Many contacts also said employer-provided benefits and insurance costs were climbing, and that much of the increase was being passed on to employees.

AI use widens, without big cuts expected

AI implementation broadened across surveyed firms, as more contacts used AI tools and automation to raise employee productivity and efficiency. As in earlier reports, most firms did not expect those efforts to lead to significant workforce reductions in the near term. The report gives no count of jobs added or eliminated by the technology.

Data centers and advanced manufacturing carry the load

Overall manufacturing activity was flat, a step down from the moderate growth the district reported in September. An apparel maker described stable volumes and pricing, and a large distillery and brewery said demand was flat to slightly down. Contacts continued to report strength in data-center construction, industrial components fabrication and advanced manufacturing, which offset slight contraction elsewhere.

Data-center work showed up across the report. It continued to drive industrial real estate, supported construction and land development lending, and helped stabilize trucking demand alongside advanced manufacturing. Urgent deliveries for data-center projects strained freight capacity. Utility contacts described persistent demand from AI-related infrastructure, though many projects are not expected to be operational until the late 2020s.

Consumer-facing activity was softer. Consumer spending grew slightly, with high-end retail offsetting weaker demand in other tiers. Restaurants reported less foot traffic and more promotions, and tourism grew slightly, with some contacts lowering their forecasts for the year. Price growth stayed moderate, with diesel, steel, mechanical equipment and insurance costs cited as pressures.

What it means for job seekers

Taken together, the report describes a cautious market: few layoffs, little net hiring and continued competition for hard-to-find skills. Workers in technical trades, construction tied to data centers and advanced manufacturing appear best placed. For many others, raises are running at about 2% to 3% while benefit costs rise.

The caveats

The Beige Book is built from interviews and questionnaires with business and community contacts who are not chosen at random, and it does not produce counts of jobs or openings. The Fed says it is not a commentary on the views of Federal Reserve officials. Georgia and metro Atlanta conditions can differ from the district-wide picture, and the report does not break out figures for individual states or cities.

Sources

Featured photo: The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's headquarters building at 1000 Peachtree St. in Atlanta, with its eagle-topped column, photographed Jan. 30, 2011. Photo: rasputin243, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0). Cropped from the original.

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