Labor Market
Manufacturing activity in New York State jumped in October to its strongest reading in nearly five years, but the surge has not yet translated into faster hiring. The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Survey, released Oct. 15, showed the general business conditions index climbing 18 points to 25.5, its highest since December 2021, while the number-of-employees index held essentially steady at 10.3.
The Empire survey asks New York State manufacturers whether conditions are better or worse than the month before. Each index is the share of firms reporting an increase minus the share reporting a decrease, seasonally adjusted. Responses for the October report were collected Oct. 2 to Oct. 9.
Orders and shipments rebound
The jump in the headline index was broad. In October, 44.4% of firms said conditions improved and 18.9% said they worsened, compared with 33.9% and 26.3% in September, when the index stood at 7.6. The new orders index rose 21 points to 23.2, and the shipments index rose 16 points to 13.1, after a slightly negative reading in September. Unfilled orders rose and delivery times lengthened.
Supply conditions got worse. The supply availability index slipped to -15.1, its lowest level since June 2022, meaning more firms reported worsening than improving availability of inputs.
The labor readings
Employment kept growing, but not faster. Twenty percent of firms reported more employees in October and 9.8% reported fewer, giving an index of 10.3, compared with 10.6 in September. The New York Fed described this as “ongoing modest growth in employment.”
Hours rose at a slower pace. The average employee workweek index fell to 9.1 from 17.0, so fewer firms reported their employees working longer hours than in September, though more still reported increases than decreases.
Expectations for hiring stayed positive. The index for the number of employees six months ahead was 19.5, little changed from 20.0, with 34.5% of firms expecting to have more workers and 15.0% expecting fewer. The future general business conditions index fell 8 points to 21.0, which the bank said showed firms still expect improvement but are less optimistic than in recent months.
“Employment continued to grow modestly and the pace of price increases remained elevated,” Richard Deitz, an economic research advisor at the New York Fed, said in the report.
Prices stay high
The prices paid index eased about 4 points from last month’s four-year high to 59.5, and the prices received index rose to 30.6. Both indexes of expected prices six months ahead climbed further, to 70.9 for prices paid and 48.0 for prices received, which the bank said suggests expectations of price increases have become more widespread.
Why it matters for job seekers
A sharp rise in orders often comes before hiring, but New York manufacturers are not yet adding staff any faster than they were in September. For job seekers in production, warehousing or skilled trades tied to New York factories, the survey points to steady hiring rather than a hiring surge. If the gain in orders holds, the next signs to watch are a rise in the employment index or a rebound in the workweek index.
The catch
This is a diffusion survey of New York State manufacturers, not a count of jobs, and one month’s jump can reverse. It does not measure statewide or national factory payrolls, which come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Price pressure and worsening supply availability could limit how much of the order gain turns into output and hiring. The Philadelphia Fed’s regional survey, released the same morning, showed activity slowing in its district but also a positive employment reading.
Sources
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “Empire State Manufacturing Survey,” October 2026 report, October 15, 2026. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/survey/empire/empire2026/2026_10_empire-state-manufacturing-survey.pdf
- Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “Empire State Manufacturing Survey (overview),” October 15, 2026. https://www.newyorkfed.org/survey/empire/empiresurvey_overview.htm
Featured photo: The Federal Reserve Bank of New York building in Lower Manhattan, New York, photographed May 26, 2026. Photo: Ajay Suresh, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0). Cropped from the original.
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