U.S. Hourly Pay Growth Eases to 3.0% as September Payroll Gains Slow

Pay & Compensation

Average hourly earnings for U.S. private-sector workers were 3.0% higher in September than a year earlier, even as payroll growth slowed to 29,000.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday that average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents in September to $37.81, a 0.1% monthly increase.

For private-sector production and nonsupervisory workers, average hourly earnings increased by 7 cents, or 0.2%, to $32.60.

The figures provide a different view of the labor market from the payroll headline.

Employers added only 29,000 jobs during September, but the earnings data do not show wages suddenly falling as hiring slowed.

Wage growth and hiring are different signals

Average hourly earnings measure what employees on private nonfarm payrolls are being paid. They do not measure the salary an individual applicant will receive, and they should not be interpreted as an offer-rate benchmark for every occupation.

The 3.0% annual increase is nominal, meaning it has not been adjusted for inflation.

That distinction matters when workers evaluate whether their purchasing power is improving.

The report also shows why wage growth should be examined alongside hours.

The average workweek for private-sector employees remained at 34.4 hours in September. Manufacturing’s average workweek was unchanged at 40.6 hours, while factory overtime held at 3.0 hours.

For production and nonsupervisory employees, the average workweek remained at 33.8 hours.

A worker’s weekly earnings depend on both hourly pay and hours worked, so stable hourly earnings do not necessarily tell the complete compensation story.

A labor market with less movement

The August JOLTS report showed a quits rate of 1.9% and a layoffs-and-discharges rate of 1.0%, both little changed — a market with relatively little turnover.

That environment can affect pay dynamics.

Job switching has historically been one route to faster wage growth, but a slower hiring market can reduce the number of workers able or willing to make that move.

Friday’s BLS report does not directly measure the wage premium for switching employers. Other datasets, including the Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker and ADP Pay Insights, are better suited to that question.

For September, the federal payroll data establish a narrower point: hourly earnings continued to rise even as employment growth slowed to 29,000.

Workers comparing compensation should still look beyond the national average to occupation, geography, experience level, benefits and hours.

Sources

Featured photo: A worker lifts a metal panel in a warehouse. Representative image; not connected to the September earnings data. Photo: Shixart1985, via Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 2.0). Cropped from the original.

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