Labor Market
A leading U.S. employment indicator weakened in September, adding another caution signal to a labor market already showing slower payroll growth.
The Conference Board Employment Trends Index fell 0.5% to 107.56 in September from a downwardly revised 108.08 in August. The index had risen in July and August before turning lower.
More consumers say jobs are hard to get
One of the index’s eight components is the share of consumers who say jobs are “hard to get.” That measure rose to 21.9% in September, according to The Conference Board.
The ETI combines eight labor-market indicators, including job openings, unemployment claims, temporary-help employment, involuntary part-time work and the share of companies reporting positions they cannot fill.
What the index means
The Employment Trends Index is designed as a leading composite indicator for payroll employment. A monthly decline does not mean payrolls will necessarily fall, but sustained deterioration can signal weaker employment growth ahead.
The September decline comes after the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that U.S. payrolls increased by only 29,000 in September.
What to watch: whether the ETI falls again in October and whether the “jobs hard to get” measure continues to rise.
Sources
- The Conference Board, “The Conference Board Employment Trends Index Decreased in September,” October 5, 2026. The Conference Board
- U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Situation — September 2026. BLS
Featured photo: People working in an office. Representative image of U.S. employment conditions; not connected to The Conference Board survey. Photo: Alex Kotliarskyi via Unsplash (Unsplash License).
